Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Is President Obama Walking That Lonely Road by Himself?

The Afghanistan War is eight years old today. It’s on it’s way to becoming the longest war in our history. All the dialogue coming out of Washington seems to indicate that we’ll be there for many more years- regardless if it’s more or less troops than we have there today. This is beginning to feel like Vietnam. How long are we in for, and how many American lives will we tolerate? President Obama is walking a lonely road right now- it’s his decision alone to make- it can not be a committee decision.

McGeorge Bundy, President Kennedy’s National Security Advisor, said that power in Washington lies with the personalities who exert the most influence over the President. If a President could be swayed, then it’s those people that have his ear who are most likely to get traction with their views- the people he trusts. President Kennedy was under a lot of pressure to escalate the war in Vietnam, as early as 1961. He resisted calls for increasing troop strength and kept a lid on the war. It wasn’t until 1965, that President Johnson ramped up Vietnam into a full-scale war.

History tells us that Robert Kennedy, McGeorge Bundy and Robert McNamara were the most influential people around JFK- they were friends and family. Bundy and McNamara were in favor of escalating the war. I don’t recall Bobby Kennedy’s position early on, but since he campaigned against the war in 1968, I imagine he would’ve advised against escalation. So Kennedy was not influenced by at least 2 of his closest friends- he stood alone and made his decision to not escalate the war.

Who are the people that have President Obama’s ear? And if they do, is he inclined to listen, or walk that lonely road by himself? I’d like to think the President is his own man, and he will make a decision on Afghanistan based on the information provided to him; not the recommendations of others. If he can be influenced, it’s hard to say who has the inside track today. Certainly it’s not Defense Secretary Gates, nor is it Joe Biden or Hillary Clinton. Even Rahm Emanuel, his Chief of Staff, is just a political acquaintance with ties to Illinois politics. General McChrystal and Admiral Mullen are providing valuable insight and data on how to win a war. But only the President can decide to escalate the war, or go in another direction. So if not these people, then who?

My guess it’s the First Lady. I think he’s weighing the information, listening carefully to his military advice, and not sleeping too well right now- confiding in the only close friend he has- trying to make the kind of decision Kennedy had to make so long ago.

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