Health Care Reform Another 8-12 Years Away

Just when I thought I’d never write another word about health reform I find my frustrated fingers pounding away on the keyboard again. Enough already--it just isn’t going to happen. It’s the proverbial dead horse… Senator Baucus managed to screw up the health reform package to the point where we’ll be right back where it all started, with one big—but— our health insurance rates will skyrocket.

With his version of health reform 25 million people will likely remain uninsured. The health cartel says they’ll be getting all the sick people and rates will have to increase because the healthy people won’t be coming into the market to spread the risk around. Well, there you go. Even the health cartel knows the only long-term fix will be a government run program and they go the way of the dodo. It would appear that we haven't hit bottom yet. Health care will have to get a lot more painful for everybody before Congress will listen to the people. Reaction to the Baucus plan could be the catalyst for real reform sometime in the distant future. Unfortunately it won’t happen for at least a couple flip-flops of Democrats-Republicans-Democrats in control of Congress.

Everyone will hate this plan- as they should- and the centrists will tip to the Republicans in 2010. They won't fix it—not a chance— but they will succeed in delaying reforms. Between a poor health care bill, an energy bill that appears to be DOA, the war in Afghanistan and the discontent over the stimulus give-away, President Obama is on a popularity glide path to Whoville as a one-term president.

So we’ll likely stumble around in the dark with at least one term of a Bush 3.0 look-alike before we ever get another crack at the bat for true health reform. Based on the distance between the Clinton and Obama health reform failures, we probably won’t have another opportunity for 8-12 years. If I weren't going on Medicare in a few months I think I’d move to Canada if this scenario plays out.